The transport sector contributes significantly to the UK economy, generating over £274 billion in 2022. However, it remains the biggest emitter of carbon in the UK. With the government setting a legally binding target of net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, and significant reductions needed by 2030 and 2035, reducing emissions in the transport sector needs to be prioritised. 

We recently attended the Cenex Expo 2024 to be part of the conversations around the industry’s visions for the future of the transport industry, how it will achieve the Net Zero shift, and what support is needed from the government. 

Economic Opportunity 

The transition to Net Zero is expected to unlock substantial economic opportunities, potentially worth over £1 trillion to UK businesses by 2030. It is hoped that decarbonisation will spur advancements in battery production, hydrogen fuel technology, and sustainable low-carbon fuels, positioning the UK as a leader in green technology. The message to industry is that we should embrace Net Zero as an exciting opportunity for economic growth and innovation, not just an environmental imperative. 

Electrification and Hydrogen

By 2050, it is expected that electrification will dominate the transport sector, with an estimated 163TWh of electricity needed for transport, powering at least nine in ten cars and vans, most buses, coaches, and rail movements. Hydrogen will also play a crucial role, particularly for heavy goods vehicles, buses, and coaches. However, the complete shift from fossil fuels to sustainable transport brings challenges for the industry in relation to supply chains and scale-up – we have blogged previously about grid capacity challenges facing EV roll-out, the environmental impact of the battery supply chain and recycling and key considerations for hydrogen as an emerging industry.

Policy Trajectory 

Delivering Net Zero and capitalising on the opportunities it brings will require a stable policy environment, consistent long-term investment and collaboration between the government and the transport sector. It will be crucial to address challenges such as the affordability of electric vehicles, the need for extensive charging infrastructure, and the reinforcement of the electricity grid. 

A recurring theme at Cenex was a call from industry for the new government to set a clear policy position and to champion an ambitious industrial strategy, which can then act as a catalyst for new technologies and innovation, ensuring that the UK remains at the forefront of the global green economy.

In her opening speech at Cenex, Future Roads Minister Lilian Greenwood reaffirmed the government's manifesto pledge to reinstate the ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars by 2030 – but with a new clarification that the sale of some hybrid vehicles will be permitted until 2035. We look forward to seeing the change to the zero emission vehicle mandate enacted in law, along with clarification of what types of hybrid vehicles will be permitted post-2030, to give industry some much-needed certainty of the route to Net Zero. 

If you would like to discuss Net Zero and sustainable transport projects, please contact Charlotte Robinson or Chris Lewis.