A recent article in the FT highlighted the continuing importance of commercial real estate to the US economy (which in turn draws parallels with the UK economy).
Many see 2024 as a potential turning point in a difficult market with the public markets having already priced a lot of stress, leaving opportunities.
In particular the article highlights three key asset classes (although it does point out that returns differ by market type and area):
Senior Living - it identified huge demand for an ageing population, and in particular “the impending wave of baby boomer retirements”
Necessity Retail - high traffic supermarkets in well off areas. In particular this was unlikely to soften given the increase in people moving to the suburbs
Data Centres - to help support the “Netflix Generation”.
Time well tell whether these asset classes continue be a good investment (although anyone who has invested in these in the last 5 years is likely to have achieved good returns)
The bill is coming due on a record amount of commercial real estate debt”, The Wall Street Journal blared this week. Fair enough. The sector is genuinely challenged, especially in offices, and distress is almost certain to rise. But all the same, CRE presents a classic moneymaking opportunity for risk-tolerant investors. The dangers are well-telegraphed, fear is high, and many underlying properties are in fine shape.
https://www.ft.com/content/4384ce90-6ee3-43d8-8b7b-aed25a01bed7